Canada Votes 2025: Liberals climbing, NDP dropping, Poilievre trails as preferred PM
'Safe, likely, and leaning' won't be good enough for the Conservatives in the Eastern Fraser Valley
Canada's leading poll aggregator show a virtual tie in voting intentions as of Thursday (March 27, 2025), a massive shift from February with the Liberals climbing, the NDP dropping, the Conservatives steady.
With the election just over a month away, the Liberals could be in majority territory as Liberal leader Mark Carney's star is rising, bringing the party along with him.
If an election were held today, 338Canada sees the Liberals with 185 seats, the Conservatives with 127, the Bloc with 24, the NDP six, and the Greens down to one.
That compares to the results of the 2021 election that saw the Liberals win 160 seats, Conservatives 119, Bloc 32, NDP 25, and Greens two.
To win a majority, a party needs 172 seats out of the 343 in Parliament.
In British Columbia, the numbers mirror the rest of the country with previous NDP voters flocking to the Liberals while the Conservatives remain steady. In the 2021 election, New Democrats won 13 seats, the Conservatives 14, the Liberals 15 and the Greens one. 338Canada projects the NDP to lose all but one of those 13 with the two main parties picking up six (Conservatives) and seven (Liberals) with the Greens losing their one seat.
Looking closer at the Eastern Fraser Valley, Chilliwack-Hope is unsurprisingly listed as a "safe" Conservative seat as it has been for more than 30 years. The newly configured electoral districts of Mission-Matsqui-Abbotsford and Abbotsford-South Langley that are usually safe Conservative territories are listed as "CPC likely" for the former and the more tentative "CPC leaning" the latter.
Two other adjacent districts of Cloverdale-Langley City and Langley Township-Fraser Heights are considered to be a statistical toss up between the Conservatives and the Liberals.
Election day is April 28, 2025.
The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. The website is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal.
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Paul J. Henderson
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